Turkey and Egypt: a case study on how terrorism affects tourism in the Mediterranean

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Ngo, Crystal
Ruiz-Blake, Aránzazu Erin
Song, Ruishuang
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Scholarship Sewanee 2020 , Tourism , Terrorism , Mediterranean , Affect of terrorism on tourism , Turkey , Egypt
This paper studies the effect of terrorism on tourism demand in Turkey and Egypt over the twenty-year period from 1995 to 2015. These countries are large tourist destinations, and both experienced a substantial amount of terrorist activity within this period. Determining if there is an effect from terrorism and anticipating its duration can be beneficial to the tourism industry in better crisis management for future terrorist events. Included in our regression was monthly tourism and terrorism data. Our results showed that the number of kills due to terrorism has a negative statistically significant impact on tourism at the 5% significance level in both countries. The results were controlled for seasonal monthly and annual patterns. Since the effect of terrorism on tourism takes some time to occur, tourism in a given month decreases by approximately 0.10% in Turkey and 0.3% in Egypt for every additional kill due to terrorism one month prior to departure. This suggests that the effects of terrorism on Egypt are slightly larger than in Turkey.